A calm read on Bitcoin, without the noise.
This week the read stepped up a level, from 8 to 10 of 14. Over the month, the read holds constructive: more of what we track leans toward the price than against. What we're watching: whether the dollar loosens its grip, and whether the stock market itself stays steady.
The environment stepped up from Defensive to Neutral / Mixed on the July monthly close: Bitcoin rose about 7% in the month to $62,814, reclaiming its 50-month SMA one month after the cycle's first break, while monthly RSI turned up from 40.8 to 43.2. The intermediate structure remains broken — price still sits roughly 20% below its 20-month EMA — and the monthly Stoch-RSI slipped just below its oversold threshold, giving back the point short-term momentum had been holding. The macro picture split: the dollar eased below its 20-week trend for the first time in months, while US 10-year yields firmed further above trend; global liquidity (M2) kept expanding at about 5.5% year over year. Relative strength turned this week: Bitcoin reclaimed its 20-week trend against gold (ratio 16.94 vs 15.29) and moved back ahead of the Nasdaq pair, while the Nasdaq itself holds above trend — all three relative reads now register, and that is what carries the weekly composite up to Constructive. The structural read is as of the July 31 monthly close per the engine's confirmed-candle rule; the next monthly re-evaluation is the August 31 close. Institutional demand held its two points: another week of net spot-ETF creations (about +$483M by the share-count method) kept 3 of the last 4 weekly aggregates positive.
Bitcoin's structure is split: the long-term trend and monthly momentum still holding, the mid-term trend and short-term momentum faltering (3 of 6 points).
July close $62,814 sits about 20% below the 20-month EMA ($78,490) — the intermediate-term structure is broken.
July close $62,814 holds about 5% above the 50-month SMA ($59,963) — the long-term structural trend is intact.
Monthly RSI improved to 43 from 41 — momentum is turning up.
Monthly Stoch-RSI %K at 9 sits below the 10 floor — short-term momentum is washed out.
Macro conditions are mixed: the dollar and liquidity on the supportive side, yields on the restrictive side (2 of 3 points).
The broad dollar index at 119 sits below its 20-week EMA (120) with RSI 44 — a softening dollar supports risk assets.
The US 10-year yield at 4.68% holds above its 20-week trend (4.51%) — yields have not eased yet.
US M2 money supply is growing 5.5% year-over-year and rose month-over-month — the liquidity backdrop is expanding.
Institutional demand is flowing: spot-ETF creations outpaced redemptions in most of the recent weeks (2 of 2 points).
Spot-ETF creations outpaced redemptions in 3 of the last 4 weeks (share-count method) — institutional demand is flowing in.
Bitcoin leads its benchmarks: it outpaces gold and the Nasdaq on the weekly trend (3 of 3 points).
The BTC/Gold ratio at 16.941 holds above its 20-week trend (15.294) — Bitcoin is outpacing the defensive asset.
The BTC/Nasdaq ratio at 2.992 holds above its 20-week trend (2.660) — Bitcoin leads risk assets.
The Nasdaq at 26,180 holds above its 20-week trend (25,439) — the wider risk market is structurally healthy.
| Date | Score | Regime |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | 3 | DEFENSIVE |
| 2026-07-26 | 3 | DEFENSIVE |
| 2026-07-27 | 3 | DEFENSIVE |
| 2026-08-03 | 4 | DEFENSIVE |
| 2026-08-04 | 7 | NEUTRAL_MIXED |
| 2026-08-10 | 6 | NEUTRAL_MIXED |
| 2026-08-17 | 8 | NEUTRAL_MIXED |
| 2026-08-24 | 10 | CONSTRUCTIVE |
Updated weekly
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diBoaS Analytics is a publisher of educational market commentary. The framework summarizes the macro and structural environment for the markets it covers, starting with Bitcoin but does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Past observations are not predictive of future returns. Always make decisions based on your own circumstances.
diBoaS does not provide investment advice. The framework on this page summarizes the macro and structural environment of the markets it covers for educational purposes only. Crypto-asset values are highly volatile and your capital is at risk. Information is intended for residents of the EU, US, UK, and Brazil where local distribution is permitted; nothing here constitutes a solicitation in any other jurisdiction.
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