A calm read on Bitcoin, without the noise.
A steady week — still 12 of 14. Over the month, the read is very favorable: almost all of what we track supports the price. What we're watching: whether the dollar loosens its grip, and whether the stock market itself stays steady.
The month turned, so the structural block was re-evaluated on the September 30 close, and all four monthly reads held with more room than a month ago. Price closed at $83,554, about 6.4% up on the month: about 5.8% above the 20-month line ($78,978), where a month ago it was only just above it, and about 34% above the 50-month line ($62,342). Monthly RSI rose to 53.1 from 50.9, and the monthly Stoch-RSI %K reads 27.6 against a floor of 10. Six of six points, the same four reads, now with clear margins rather than thin ones.
The macro block did not move. The dollar and the US 10-year both still read their September 25 values: the dollar at 120.33 against a 119.37 trend (0.80% above, momentum 56), and the 10-year at 5.17% against a 4.70% trend. Both work against the price. Liquidity still reads the August print, about 5.7% annual expansion with $124.9bn added on the month. One of three points, unchanged.
The last two groups kept their points, with a mixed picture underneath. The most recent spot-ETF week was a creation of about $362M, so the four trailing weeks read +$548M, -$236M, +$1,182M and +$362M: three of four positive, still exactly the signal's threshold of three, with the redemption week still inside the window. Bitcoin's lead over gold widened to 20.3% (20.30 against a 16.88 trend), while its lead over the Nasdaq narrowed to 9.3% (3.11 against 2.84); the Nasdaq itself held 4.5% above its own trend (27,191 against 26,018). Twelve of fourteen, Very Favorable, with the macro backdrop still the softer side of the picture.
Bitcoin's structure is sound: price holds its monthly trend lines and momentum confirms (6 of 6 points).
September close $83,554 holds about 6% above the 20-month EMA ($78,978) — the intermediate-term structure remains intact.
September close $83,554 holds about 34% above the 50-month SMA ($62,342) — the long-term structural trend is intact.
Monthly RSI improved to 53 from 51 — momentum is turning up.
Monthly Stoch-RSI %K at 28 holds above the 10 floor — short-term momentum has not capitulated.
Macro conditions are mixed: liquidity on the supportive side, the dollar and yields on the restrictive side (1 of 3 points).
The broad dollar index at 120 holds above its 20-week EMA (119) with RSI 56 — a firm dollar keeps the macro backdrop restrictive.
The US 10-year yield at 5.17% holds above its 20-week trend (4.70%) — yields have not eased yet.
US M2 money supply is growing 5.7% year-over-year and rose month-over-month — the liquidity backdrop is expanding.
Institutional demand is flowing: spot-ETF creations outpaced redemptions in most of the recent weeks (2 of 2 points).
Spot-ETF creations outpaced redemptions in 3 of the last 4 weeks (share-count method) — institutional demand is flowing in.
Bitcoin leads its benchmarks: it outpaces gold and the Nasdaq on the weekly trend (3 of 3 points).
The BTC/Gold ratio at 20.301 holds above its 20-week trend (16.878) — Bitcoin is outpacing the defensive asset.
The BTC/Nasdaq ratio at 3.108 holds above its 20-week trend (2.843) — Bitcoin leads risk assets.
The Nasdaq at 27,191 holds above its 20-week trend (26,018) — the wider risk market is structurally healthy.
| Date | Score | Regime |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | 3 | DEFENSIVE |
| 2026-07-26 | 3 | DEFENSIVE |
| 2026-07-27 | 3 | DEFENSIVE |
| 2026-08-03 | 4 | DEFENSIVE |
| 2026-08-04 | 7 | NEUTRAL_MIXED |
| 2026-08-10 | 6 | NEUTRAL_MIXED |
| 2026-08-17 | 8 | NEUTRAL_MIXED |
| 2026-08-24 | 10 | CONSTRUCTIVE |
| 2026-08-31 | 10 | CONSTRUCTIVE |
| 2026-09-07 | 13 | VERY_FAVORABLE |
| 2026-09-15 | 13 | VERY_FAVORABLE |
| 2026-09-21 | 13 | VERY_FAVORABLE |
| 2026-09-29 | 12 | VERY_FAVORABLE |
| 2026-10-05 | 12 | VERY_FAVORABLE |
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diBoaS Analytics is a publisher of educational market commentary. The framework summarizes the macro and structural environment for the markets it covers, starting with Bitcoin but does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Past observations are not predictive of future returns. Always make decisions based on your own circumstances.
diBoaS does not provide investment advice. The framework on this page summarizes the macro and structural environment of the markets it covers for educational purposes only. Crypto-asset values are highly volatile and your capital is at risk. Information is intended for residents of the EU, US, UK, and Brazil where local distribution is permitted; nothing here constitutes a solicitation in any other jurisdiction.
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