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Macro environment score

Adelaide Daily

Calm macro intelligence for Bitcoin.

5/ 14
DefensiveModerate confidence

The environment moved into the Defensive band as Bitcoin closed April below its 20-month EMA and spot ETF flows reversed across recent weeks. The long-term 50-month SMA still holds and monthly RSI ticked higher month-over-month, so the underlying trend has not broken — but US 10-year yields remain elevated, the dollar is firm, and Bitcoin is underperforming both gold and the Nasdaq on a 20-week basis. The pattern reads as a calm pause that calls for caution, not as a confirmed downtrend. The structural read is as of the April 30 monthly close per the engine's confirmed-candle rule; the next monthly re-evaluation is the May 31 close.

Signal groups

Four groups make up the 14-point score. Expand a card to see the signals inside.

BTC Structure

3/ 6pts

Bitcoin's long-term structure is intact but the intermediate trend has weakened.

Macro Environment

1/ 3pts

Macro conditions remain restrictive overall, though global liquidity continues to expand.

Institutional Demand

0/ 2pts

Spot ETF flows have turned net-negative across the most recent two weeks.

Relative Strength

1/ 3pts

Bitcoin is lagging both gold and the Nasdaq on a 20-week basis; broader equity strength persists.

Data sources

Live confidence per upstream feed.

  • in-repo:monthlyPrices.json (BTC)·Delayed
  • FRED:DGS10·Fresh
  • FRED:DTWEXBGS·Fresh
  • FRED:M2SL·Delayed
  • FRED:NASDAQCOM·Fresh
  • Yahoo:GC=F·Delayed
  • CoinGlass:ETF·Delayed

How this is calculated

Every signal, threshold, and weight is documented on diBoaS Analytics.

Read the methodology ↗

diBoaS Analytics is a publisher of educational market commentary. The framework summarizes the macro and structural environment for Bitcoin but does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Past observations are not predictive of future returns. Always make decisions based on your own circumstances.

diBoaS does not provide investment advice. The framework on this page summarizes the macro and structural environment for Bitcoin for educational purposes only. Crypto-asset values are highly volatile and your capital is at risk. Information is intended for residents of the EU, US, UK, and Brazil where local distribution is permitted; nothing here constitutes a solicitation in any other jurisdiction.

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